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- Gold ends the week above $1,800 level as U.S. inflation data shows signs of cooling
- S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
- Case-Shiller Home Price Index: National
- Oil books biggest weekly gain since October as concerns rise over Russia supplies
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The CoreLogic Case-Shiller® Home Price Indexes include Federal Housing Finance Agency indexes for missing markets and time periods—ensuring the most complete coverage possible of all U.S. Census divisions, states, metropolitan areas, and micropolitan divisions. Down-weight pairs with long intervals between sales and reduce the influence of extreme price changes. National Index posted a month-over-month decrease of -0.9%, and the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted decreases of -1.3%. National Index posted a month-over-month decrease of -0.2%, and the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted decreases of -0.5% and -0.4%, respectively. National Index posted a -0.3% month-over-month decrease in July, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted decreases of -0.8%.
Perhaps in the future, I’ll use that state-level quarterly data to estimate personal income at the metro level for the most recent months. But that’s would be a big project to forecast Per Capita Personal Income by metro by month. The Case-Shiller National Home Price Index is a composite index of the single-family residential real estate values in 9 US Census divisions. The Case-Shiller method of calculating the home price index adjusts the weighting for the quality of sold homes. The Case-Shiller indices are seen as one of the most reliable measures of housing price trends in the US.
Gold ends the week above $1,800 level as U.S. inflation data shows signs of cooling
In addition, the data is a 3-month moving average so that January data that comes out at the end of March is really the average for November-January. Or you could call it a 3-month moving average or a rolling quarterly index. U.S. home prices cooled in July at the fastest rate in the history of the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index, according to a report released Tuesday. Whenever a group like Morgan Stanley or John Burns Real Estate Consulting says U.S. home prices, they're talking about a national aggregate. Some firms, like CoreLogic and Home.LLC, doubt that U.S. home prices will fall in 2023 with inventory being this tight.
Tampa, Florida, Miami and Dallas saw the highest annual gains among the 20 cities in July, with increases of 31.8%, 31.7% and 24.7%, respectively. Washington, D.C., Minneapolis and San Francisco saw the smallest gains, but were still well above year-ago levels. Among the country's 400 largest housing markets, 364 markets remain below pre-pandemic inventory levels. Using an index of house prices instead of the actual dollar prices makes it easier to compare house price appreciation between the 20 cities. The Case-Shiller Home Price Index is the most accurate way to look at house price appreciation in a city, between cities, and nationally. Another recent report from the National Association of Realtors showed home prices softening dramatically from June to July.
S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
S&P Case Shiller home price data is published monthly by the S&P Dow Jones. Data shown is the seasonally adjusted annual rate and is shown in total and by city. "As the Federal Reserve continues to move interest rates higher, mortgage financing continues to be more expensive, and housing becomes less affordable," Lazarra continued. "Given the continuing prospects for a challenging macroeconomic environment, home prices may well continue to weaken." Annual home price growth slowed in September as rising mortgage rates continued to test affordability for homebuyers, according to the latestS&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices report. We usually get the average and median house price data soon after the end of a month which is an advantage over the Case-Shiller numbers.
The 20-City composite, which adds regions such as the Seattle metro area and greater Detroit, gained 16.1%, down from 18.7% in the previous month. July's year-over-year gains were lower compared with June in each of the cities covered by the index. Tampa, Miami and Dallas saw the highest annual gains among the 20 cities in July, with increases of 31.8%, 31.7% and 24.7%, respectively. While Morgan Stanley researchers don't think tight inventory will prevent home prices declines, they do believe tight inventory levels will prevent a 2008-style crash. The repeat-sales method is a manner of calculating changes in the sales price of the same piece of real estate over specific periods of time. But the key to the reliability of the indices is what they represent.
Case-Shiller Home Price Index: National
"Given the prospects for a more challenging macroeconomic environment, home prices may well continue to decelerate”, Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI said. September brought about high interest rates and slowing sales, which continued to slow home price growth annually. While buyers are stepping aside waiting for more affordable prices and rates – causing the slowdown on price growth – would-be sellers are sticking their ground and holding tight to the inventory they currently own. As a result, prices might not continue to plunge down as much as some projections anticipate— as the available inventory of homes on the market is constrained. Every quarter, Moody’s Analytics assesses whether local fundamentals, including local income levels, can support local house prices. Thesefrothy markets include places like Boise("overvalued" by 74%) and Austin ("overvalued" by 61%).
For more information on “Backward Data Assumption” and back-testing in general, please see the Performance Disclosure. "For homeowners planning to list, today's market is significantly different than the one from even 3 weeks ago," said George Ratiu, senior economist and manager of economic research at Realtor.com. In total, there were751,544 active listings on Realtor.com in November 2022. That's up from 511,899 listings in November 2021 and 683,606 active listings in November 2020.
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The national Case-Shiller Home Price Index rose 10.6% year-over-year in September, down from the rate set in August. Annual appreciation slowed in both the 10- and 20-city (non-seasonally adjusted) indices. The annual gain in the 10-city index fell from 12.1% in August to 9.7% in September and for the 20-city composite index from 13.1% to 10.4%. From August to September the national index fell to -0.8%, while the 10- and 20-city indices were down -1.2% and -1.2%, respectively. Here we look at per capita personal income in the Case-Shiller metros. Unfortunately, data on metro-area per capita income are only available on an annual basis so we can’t monitor the current real estate market.
Moody's Analytics and CoreLogic® have partnered to create the most trustworthy and authoritative U.S. house price forecasts available. Case-Shiller® Indexes are market-specific and accurately track historical residential house prices over time. They measure the total market, not just prices of homes purchased through conforming loans. Someday, I would like to adjust the Case-Shiller Index for Per Capita Personal Income to see how house prices are doing relative to income. Data on personal income is available quarterly at the state level.
The idea is that if you’re taking out a mortgage to buy a house, the price of the house is mainly your monthly mortgage payment and the mortgage interest rate has a big impact on your monthly mortgage payment. That is, your mortgage interest rate has a big effect on the price – the monthly mortgage payment price – of your house. The Case-Shiller Home Price Index measures house price inflation by looking at repeated sales of the same single-family houses. The 10-City composite, which tracks prices in major metropolitan areas such as New York and Boston, climbed 14.9% year over year, down from 17.4% in June.
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index® rose 10.6% year-over-year in September (non-seasonally adjusted), down from 13.0% in August. Nevertheless, you might be interested in looking at some income data to get a feel for the data. Phoenix and Minneapolis data start in 1989, Seattle starts in 1990, Atlanta and Detroit start in 1991, and Dallas data only starts in 2000. For more information regarding the index, please visit Standard & Poor's. There is more information about home price sales pairs in the Methodology section.
The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 14.9%, down from 17.4% the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 16.1% year-over-year gain, down from 18.7% the previous month. The national Home Price index reported a 15.8% annual gain in July, down from 18.1% in June – the largest price deceleration in the history of the index. Annual home price growth as reported by Case-Shiller are expected to decelerate in all three indices.
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